The Bradley Effect

As of October 20, 2008, according to pollster.com, the current polling percentages between the two major party candidates are Barack Obama with 49.3% and John McCain with 43.7%. As Barack Obama’s polling numbers grow, I have heard a growing use of the term “the Bradley Effect” being used by pundits and political analysts in the media. This term “Bradley Effect” is used to describe the discrepancy between the projected polling numbers and the actual outcome of election results for non-white candidates.
This effect is believed to be caused by people giving inaccurate polling responses to pollsters saying they would vote for the non-white candidate in order to not be perceived as racist instead of stating their true preference. This originated from the 1982 gubernatorial election in California in which Tom Bradley, an African-American democrat ran against a white, Republican candidate George Deukmejian and lost. In the last days before the election, polls showed that Bradley had a significant lead over Deukmejian, yet on election day, Bradley had a worse turnout with white voters then formerly received and narrowly lost the election.
This effect is not always relevant to all elections between a white and non-white candidate as there are still non-white politicians. But in this historical election, the media appears to be becoming more skeptical of Barack Obama’s advantage in the polls and the term Bradley Effect has been making its way into the vernacular of the media. We will only know if this phenomenon had any impact on this election on November 4.