Thank You for Not Reading

One of the battle Cries of the Republican Party at the Republican National Convention was “Drill Baby, Drill” which is an adequate description of one aspect of the republican energy policy. There is no question that the United States cannot sustain the way that the current energy economy is run. At the vice presidential debate Governor Pailin continually returned to her primary area of expertise, oil in Alaska. Governor Pailin expressed the importance of drilling in Alaska in order to combat rising oil prices and dependence on foreign oil. However, Governor Pailin never bothered to discuss the specifics of her plan for drilling and merely presented her plan as an ambiguous cure all for the imbalance of energy production and consumption in the United States. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) “Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge”, a document with no political affiliations or biases, displays the operation of Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as not possible until at least ten years in the future, costly, and unable to yield significant amount oil in comparison with American demand.

The United States is the Number one Consumer of petroleum products in the world. In 2006 the United States consumed an average of 20.7 million Barrels of oil a day. An average 15.3 million barrels, of the 20.7 consumed, were crude oil, 4.4 million Barrels were produced in the Lower 48 states, 700,00 barrels were produced in Alaska, and the remaining 10.1 barrels were imported (EIA 10). The remainder of the average 20.7 barrels consume consisted of 1.7, million barrels of natural gas 1.4 million barrels of “other inputs”(EIA 10), and 2.3 million barrels of imported petroleum products (IAE 10). The imported petroleum products, crude included, in 2006 constituted 60% petroleum consumed in the United States and totaled $265 billion dollars of imports (IAE 10). Both parties have outlined plans for the destruction of the United Sates dependency on oil from foreign countries. In the case of the republican ticket there is a great deal of focus on increased production of oil in the United States particularly in the gulf Coast and Alaska. Because of Governor Pailin’s affinity for, and knowledge of the state of Alaska the majority of her arguments were focused around the state and its potential oil production.

The words “drill in Alaska” are in themselves rather vague, Alaska is enormous. The current plan for drilling in Alaska that Governor Pailin supports is drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) particularly on the coastal plain. The prospective area, referred to as the 1002 area, is comprised of 1.5 million acres or 8% of the ANWR (EIA 2). Of the 1.5 million acres 74% reside on federal lands and 26% reside on state or native lands, all parties have expressed interest in developing the land for oil production (EIA 2).

In December 2007 Senator Ted Stevens requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) produce and analysis the prospect of drilling in the ANWR. Basing their analysis of the assumption that steps to begin drilling would commences in 2008 the produced a time table for the production of oil in Alaska. The EIA timetables in the Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve state that it would take:

· 2 to 3 years to obtain leases, including the development of a U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) leasing program, which includes approval of an Environmental Impact Statement, the collection and analysis of seismic data, and the auction and award of leases.

· 2 to 3 years to drill a single exploratory well. Exploratory wells are slower to drill because geophysical data are collected during drilling, e.g., rock cores and well logs. Typically, Alaska North Slope exploration wells take two full winter seasons to reach the desired depth.

· 1 to 2 years to develop a production development plan and obtain BLM approval for that plan, if a commercial oil reservoir is discovered. Considerably more time could be required if the discovered oil reservoir is very deep, is filled with heavy oil, or is highly faulted. The petroleum company might have to collect more seismic data or drill delineation wells to confirm that the deposit is commercial.

· 3 to 4 years to construct the feeder pipelines; to fabricate oil separation and treatment plants, and transport them up from the lower-48 States to the North Slope by ocean barge; construct drilling pads; drill to depth; and complete the wells.

(IEA 3)

This clearly indicates that there would be no benefit what so ever from the ANWR until at least the year 2016, more likely 2018 or 2020. While the decision to drill in Alaska could be made this year, or by the incoming administration in the next four years, there is no reason that oil production in the ANWR should be considered a solution to current high fuel prices.

Because of the location of the location of the ANWR the cost of drilling will be significantly increased in comparison with the lower 48 United States. The Joint Association Survey of Drilling Costs (JAS) stated that the cost of drilling a well in the lower 48 states, in 10,000 to 12,499 foot range, was $111 per foot in 2000 and increased 165% to $294 in 2005 (EIA 7). The price of drilling a well of the same depth on the north slopes of Alaska increased 564% from $283 in 2000 to $1880 per foot in 2005 (EIA 7). The massive cost of drilling a well on the north slopes combined with astronomical cost increase between 2000 and 2005 indicate the potential cost of drilling in the next ten years and the consequential price crude oil recovered from the ANWR offing littlie to no decrease in the price of fuel.

While there is a notable amount of oil on the ANWR it should be compared with the amount of oil produced in the lower 48 and the estimated amount of undiscovered oil in the lower 48. The ANWR is believed to contain between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil (EIA 1). In comparison with the projected 120 billion barrels of oil that remain undiscovered and technically recoverable in the lower 48 states the amount of recoverable oil in the ANWR seems a minute amount. (IEA 1). In 2006 the Lower-48 states produced 5.1 million barrels of crude oil with a projection 6.3 million barrels a day in 2018 and 5.6 million barrels a day in 2030. Production of oil in the ANWR, if the process of petitioning, surveying, drilling began in 2008, would begin production in 2018 and peak at 510,000 to 1,450,000 barrels some time between 2027 and 2028 producing a total of 1.9 to 4.3 billion barrels of oil between 2018 and 2030 (EIA 8). The amount of oil in the ANWR is a tiny portion of the total oil that is projected to be produced in the United States in after the ANWR begins producing oil. Further more it is not enough oil to produce a noticeable decrease in the united states dependency on foreign oil or reduce the cost of oil drastically as the unites states consumes such a tremendous volume, in the vicinity of 20 million barrels, of oil every day.

The Annual energy Outlook 2008 or AEO2008 predicts that drilling in the ANWR will produce a decrease in the United States dependency on foreign Oil by two to eight percent between 2020 and 2030. In 2020 the AEO2002 predicts that the United States economy will consume 22.0 million barrels of oil per day (IEA 10). With out the addition of the ANWR the United States will produce 6.2 million barrels of crude per day and 1.7 million barrels of natural gas and 3.0 million barrels of other fuel products per day placing the United States at a deficit of 17.4 million barrels of petroleum per day resulting in a 52% dependency on foreign oil and $207 billion (2006 USD) in funds spent on importing petroleum products and crude in 2020 (IEA 10). With the addition of the ANWR, under the Mean success rate model a 1 in 2 success rate, the United States would produce 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day, no additional natural gas and no additional other petroleum products resulting in a 2% decrease in dependency on foreign petroleum and a trade deficit of $200 billion (2006 USD) (IEA 10). The price of Low sulfur light (LSL) crude would decrease $0.24 barrel from $59.70 to $59.46 (IEA 10). In twenty thirty the United States is predicted to produces 5.6 million barrels of crude, 1.6 million barrels of natural gas, and 3.4 million barrels of other fuel products per day while consuming 22.9 million barrels of petroleum per day with a 17.4 million barrel per day or 54% dependency on foreign oil and a net expenditure of $264 billion (2006 USD) for the year importing crude and other products (IEA 11). The ANWR would increase crude production by 700,000 barrels per day decrease dependency on foreign oil to 54% and reduced net expenditures for importing oil to $241 billion. LSL crude would decrease $0.67 per barrel (IEA 11). This is not a sufficient amount in the increase of American production to free American from foreign oil dependency; it doesn’t even reduce it to beneath 50%. There is also not a sufficient enough decrease in the cost of oil for Americans to “feel it at the pumps” and the small addition, “the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price difference impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount”(EIA 11). The assertion that drilling in ANWR could even benefit the United States fuel market is a fallacy.

With all of the obvious flaws in and lack of benefits from Governor Pailin’s idea of drilling in Alaska as indicated in the Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge it is surprising that she would even consider the possibility of drilling in the ANWR. However, we as citizens allow our selves to be swindled into believing in plans such as drilling for more oil in areas where there is not enough oil to break American dependency on foreign oil. There have been numerous comments on Governor Pailin’s references to pit bull warring lipstick or the interview where she make a mockery of her self as a public figure, but regardless of a candidates strange and commonly repeated mannerisms and lack of camera presence it is more important for the populace to question the policy of the candidates. The recent accusations that McCain and Pailin are hate mongers pail in comparison to Governor Pailin’s lack of understanding of the potential of oil fields in her own state, and should be considered pathetic particularly when it was a topic that she commonly returned to in the vice presidential debates.

Although Governor pailin’s support for drilling in Alaska is a terrific example of politicians forming policy that offers hope but ignores the actual analysis of the policy and produces illogical ideas this occurrence is not confined to the Republican ticket. Barack Obama’s Windfall Profits Tax is bound to increase the cost of fuel as it is an economic understanding that taxes that a company pays are reflected in the cost of their products. Hence the $1000 that every American would receive will be redistributed to oil companies as fuel prices rise.

The information to combat the idiocy of politicians is readily available to the American public, however as the campaigns and history progress there seems that there is more and more of a detachment between the people in the debates and the fact that they make policy based on analysis, understanding, and intelligence not charisma and photogenic ability, so on behalf of both of the campaigns for the Presidency of the United States of America, thank you America. Thank you for not reading policy or analysis, thank you for looking at policy in terms of binary oppositions, thank you for not informing yourselves before you attempt to make an informed decision, thank you for not questioning the candidate that you support while blindly following them, and thank you most of all for not thinking; blinding you selves with public appearance and rhetoric never bothering to look past the candidate’s opinion, access information, and inform your own opinions and decisions.

Works Cited:

Energy Information Administration (EIA). Office of Analyisis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy. Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Washington D.C.: Office of Analyisis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy 2008. 7 Oct. 2008.