I wrote the following for the upcoming Wire issue and felt it deserved to be published here as well:
With only less than two weeks to go in the General Election campaign, the intensity has grown to a new level. Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate; is still ahead of the polls across the board in many key states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, Florida; but McCain’s campaign staff is still not giving up. It is well known that Senator McCain has pulled out of many states, surrendering them to Obama: both Nevada and Colorado. He has given up on 14 electoral votes.
The position Obama is in gives him considerably more winning combinations to reach the magical number of 270 electoral votes, the amount needed to secure the Presidency. As of today (10/23) according to CNN, Obama has 192 safe electoral votes coming from the states Kerry won in 2004 while McCain has slightly less ‘safe’ votes totaling 122. Obama continues to outspend McCain by a 4:1 margin in all of the Kerry states and in many Bush states; turning once safe Republican strongholds into political battlegrounds.
Many political science experts believe that through the number of winning combinations Obama has, it is almost an impossible chance that he could loose the Electoral College (he has 8 possible combinations, McCain only has 1); there is still some doubt, even with the campaign season coming to a close.
The only combination that McCain has to win every single remaining state including: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada and West Virginia; however if Virginia goes to Obama (which at the time of publication is leaning 52% Obama, 45% McCain), the election is automatically Obama’s because McCain will be unable to obtain 270 electoral votes with Virginia’s 13 votes. Obama on the other hand has 8 winning combinations, which involve many states that were once safe, Republican havens and if they switch from Red to blue this election cycle, they will remain that way for many cycles to come.
McCain, although down in the polls and has lost considerable ground to the Democratic campaign, he still has some aces he could play in the last week or two; namely, instigate the poor White residents of Appalachia; whom Governor Sarah Palin has described “the Real America.” She has also thrown out many negative attacks on Senator Obama including: ‘terrorist’, ‘socialist’, and ‘Anti-American.’ The people who live in this part of the country have generally voted Democratic, especially the State of West Virginia but anything can happen. McCain had once stated that this type of politics, Dog Whistling, is a shameful way to win an election but as statistical information shows that unless he continues this method of campaigning there is no way to win the election. Right now if the current campaign style is still used, the undecided independent voters will continue to gravitate closer to the Democrats. McCain needs the independents and he needs to seriously consider revising his strategy in the last two weeks.
In my opinion however, I am not completely ready to say Obama is the winner just because of what the media is saying. Obama is in the position Kerry was in the last election cycle but if McCain is able to instigate these poor, mostly rural white folks; then McCain might be able to show some force against Obama’s many advantages in Electoral-rich states. There is one conflict that should be noted: Will Reverend Wright be unleashed against Obama? The answer is no. The reason is that those unfortunate people who live in Appalachia are not completely blind and they will eventually realize there is a limit and once its reached, it will turn them off. Not to mention the independent voters will rush to Obama's side if he even attempted to do so -- McCain needs every vote he can get and distancing himself from the center is the worst that can happen to him -- and will ultimately cost him the election as well.
In summation: in regards to both sides of the political spectrum and the amount of discussion given by independent pundits and surrogate speakers, there is almost no way McCain can win but we need to watch closely over the last few days. Anything can happen.
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2 comments:
I know it looks almost certain, but I am also hesitant to readily declare Obama the victor at this point. It worries me that the media is making this assumption because it may mean some voters don't head out to the polls because of this assumed victory. Obama needs to make sure his momentum keeps going and make sure everyone gets out to vote. To have a fighting chance, McCain also needs to energize his voting base to head to the polls.
yeah, same here. I don't know if you read it, but on friday there was an article in the Huffington Post, that said the same thing - outlined all of the reasons McCain has run a terrible campaign, but yet pleaded for the mainstream media AND ESPECIALLY THE DEMOCRATS not to call it a given; to keep fighting until every last polling station has closed - because the most dangerous thing that could happen now is for voters to decide to skip voting because "the election is a given".
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