Obama's Gains and Losses

Since yesterday’s polls, Obama has gained ground in some battleground states while losing ground in others. According to today’s polls, Obama has lost his lead in Missouri, where Obama and McCain are now tied with each receiving roughly 49% of the vote. Obama has also lost a great deal of his lead in Florida and Ohio, dropping from a 2-point and 6-point lead to a 1-point and 2-point lead, respectively. Obama has also slipped slightly in Pennsylvania. However, Obama’s national lead has risen from a 7-point lead to an 11-point lead. Obama has also increased his lead in Nevada (from 8 to 11 points) and Virginia (from 6 to 9 points). Additionally, Obama has increased his lead among Independent voters from a 15 point lead to 24 point lead, and among women has increased from a 13 point lead to a 19 point lead. Obama also “leads among every age group and among every income level,” an improvement from yesterday (McCain held a 1-point lead among voters ages 55 to 69). More good news for Obama: McCain’s lead among whites dropped from a 13-point lead to a 7-point lead. McCain is also attracting only 29% of Hispanic voters; while this is an increase from yesterday’s results (25%) it is a huge loss compared to Bush, who managed to earn 40% of the Hispanic vote in the 2004 election.

As we head into the final hours of the election, predictions are rapidly changing as new data are made public. These gains and losses for both candidates reveal just how unpredictable elections can be and how quickly polls and predictions can change. These (incredibly) slim leads in certain states also show just how important it is that everyone votes, even in “safe” states. Don’t let the polls lure you into a false sense of security!