As of now, Obama has a solid lock on all the Kerry States (those won in 2004) including: Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, California, Oregon, Washington State, Maryland and Pennsylvania. With all these states, Obama is very close to obtaining the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the Presidency but he has a significantly higher chance of getting to the magic number than McCain does.
Looking at the swing states over the last week, McCain has no chance of winning Nevada, Colorado or New Mexico; and certainly not Iowa (remember, he didn't even bother with their caucuses back in January). With that in mind, he has a very narrow path to victory -- namely -- every single Republican state and every single swing state. Per my observations, Obama has advantages in each of these swing states like Florida and Ohio where people are unhappy with the economical situtation of the country not even Virginia looks good for McCain; especially Fairfax County which is closest to Washington D.C.; As I see it: everything rests on Virginia with its 13 electoral votes.
As many political anaylists have stated, if Obama wins Virginia, there is no way McCain can win. McCain might be able to win the popular vote (which I don't expect him to but anything can happen). Other states to watch out for: North Carolina (currently declared a tie by RCP) which was considered a leaning Republican state is now a hard battleground; and then there is the battleground in Montana. While the state has few electoral votes (3), its Republican Party has been very unorganized and might concede to a Democratic win, after all, they have a popular Democrat as Governor.
Perhaps two other swing states to look out for are Missouri and Nebraska. While it has been showing Republican tendencies, Obama has a fighting chance. And what about Nebraska? It is one of two states that split their electoral votes: Obama will be able to obtain the Democratic 2nd District where Omaha is; thus reducing McCain's overall win. This is a big deal, also remember Maine: they do the same thing but I don't see any spliting of the vote there.
Below is an image of my final prediction for the night (this is only a prediction and not the final outcome):
1 comment:
Your map looks pretty good to me, Zach. I would point that out that Kerry states + IA + CO + NM gives Obama 273, and as you said I don't think McCain has a chance in any of them--which makes his path to the White House a battering ram.
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